Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS): The challenges ahead
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract We conclude this special issue on the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) by briefly reviewing and analyzing claims of non-seismic precursors made in present volume, reflecting current limitations future directions to take. find that most studies presented taken individually, do not provide strong enough evidence large earthquakes. The majority results are hampered fact task at hand is susceptible potential biases data selection possible overfitting. encouraging obtained for ground-based geoelectric signals, although probability gain likely small compared an earthquake clustering baseline. only systematic search satellite available so far, those DEMETER mission, did a robust precursory pattern. conclusion we can draw overall absence convincing due deficit systematically applying statistical methods integrating scientific knowledge different fields. Most authors specialists their field while study requires system approach combined with many specific characteristics seismicity. Relating earthquakes remains challenging multidisciplinary investigation. plausibility these predicted models lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, together suggestive collected here, call further investigations. primary goal GEFS thus build global database candidate which could potentially improve predictability (if weak signals observed real false positives sufficiently uncorrelated between sources). Such stacking disparate voluminous will require big storage machine learning pipelines, has become feasible recently. This compiled eclectic list precursor candidates, itself valuable source information seismologists, geophysicists other scientists who may be familiar such types It also forms foundation coherent, multi-disciplinary collaboration prediction.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: European Physical Journal-special Topics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1951-6355', '1951-6401']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000261-8